The Buzz Everyone's Talking About
The IPO is expected to open on October 6, 2025, and close on October 8, 2025, with anchor bidding starting October 3.
With a proposed size of ₹17,000 crore, Tata Capital is eyeing a valuation near $18 billion. This is not just another listing. Under RBI rules, Tata Capital, as an upper-layer NBFC, must list before September 2025.
That compliance-driven urgency has created extra buzz, and investors are lining up to see whether this becomes the next big compounding story.
Grey Market Premium: Hype or Reality?
The grey market premium (GMP) is currently hovering around ₹51, signaling strong demand even before the official price band is declared.
But seasoned investors know GMP often exaggerates sentiment. For every HDFC Bank-like success, there are IPOs that fizzled after the listing despite glowing GMPs.
Cracks Beneath the Surface
For Tata Capital to match HDFC Bank's trajectory, fundamentals need to support the hype. That's where the questions begin:
- The provision coverage ratio has slipped from 74% to 58.5% in FY25, meaning its cushion against bad loans is shrinking.
- Analysts hint that the fair value range might be closer to ₹325–₹375 per share, while speculative bets are already stretching beyond that.
- On metrics like ROE, Tata Capital still lags behind NBFC leaders such as Bajaj Finance.
None of these risks scream "multibagger" just yet.
The Tata Advantage
On the other hand, few brands carry the trust Tata does.
With a diversified lending book, rapid digital expansion, and access to cheaper funding thanks to its parentage, Tata Capital could leverage India's credit boom for years to come.
For long-term investors, these strengths might outweigh short-term valuation jitters.
So, could this be the next HDFC Bank moment?
Comparisons to HDFC Bank are seductive but premature.
HDFC Bank's success wasn't just about its IPO it was about decades of disciplined growth, governance, and consistent returns. Tata Capital may have the pedigree and opportunity, but it still has to prove that it can execute with the same rigor.
For retail investors, the smarter move is simple: wait for the final price band, study the red herring prospectus, and assess your risk appetite before diving in. Chasing hype rarely ends well.
What to expect?
The Tata Capital IPO could indeed be a defining market event of 2025.
Whether it turns into the "next HDFC Bank moment" depends less on listing-day fireworks and more on how the company navigates growth, risk, and governance over the next decade.
If you're tracking data-heavy events like this IPO, tools like Twinql's AI Analyst can help you break down financial reports and market chatter into clean insights.
It's the kind of edge retail investors often miss when caught in the noise.